2025 Memorial Day Weekend "Laggards"

Violence increased or was stable in these cities. Are these data anomalous or predictive?

Firearm violence increased in these selected large, mid-sized, and small communities over the previous holiday weekend: Phoenix, Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Milwaukee, and Little River, South Carolina. Are these communities heading in the wrong direction, or was Memorial Day weekend a blip?

Phoenix

Memorial Day weekend and annual incident counts show that firearm violence and homicides peaked in Phoenix in 2022.

2025 Memorial Day weekend violence was up compared to the previous year (including two more fatalities), but this is still a substantial decrease in victimization compared to 2022.

With firearm homicides down 32% in Phoenix in 2024 compared to 2023, the slightly higher Memorial Day incident count doesn’t suggest a course reversal is underway. I’ll update this in July when I compare 2025 YTD firearm incident numbers to previous years.

Albuquerque

Next, Albuquerque is struggling.

Memorial Day shootings are up, and overall firearm injury and homicide rates have decreased, but to a lesser extent in Albuquerque. This city is on my watch list for 2025.

Colorado Springs

Then, Colorado Springs had as many firearm injuries (six) in 2025 as 2022, and more than the prior year. However, this amount over a long weekend is relatively low (in contrast, there were twice as many firearm injuries in Milwaukee). Nonetheless, with a population approaching 490,000 in 2024, Colorado Springs is one of the country’s fastest growing urban areas. The city’s population is predicted to reach 1 million residents before 2050, surpassing Denver as the state’s most populous city.

Annual shooting data for Colorado Springs reveals a steady downward trend in violence.

However, rapid population growth may slow the reduction in violence, since demographic data for El Paso County, where Colorado Springs is located, shows the county’s fastest age group is those aged 20 to 34: between 2010 and 2022, this population increased 30%. Gun-related assault deaths are highest among males age 15-34.

Milwaukee

Memorial Day weekend was a mixed bag in Milwaukee, with fewer gun murder but more injuries.

Milwaukee is another city where shootings have decreased more slowly than in other places, and where rates remain notably higher than pre-pandemic levels. This is driven by a firearm injury rate that is over four times (4x) higher than the firearm fatality rate. Murder rates don’t decrease due to better gunshot wound survival rates; firearm fatalities and injuries rise and fall in tandem. In most cities, there are twice as many non-fatal firearm injuries as fatalities.

Milwaukee’s higher than typical proportion of non-fatal shootings suggests a substantial amount of retaliatory violence is occurring between individuals and groups outdoors and/or during gatherings where shooters are farther away from their victims. This reduces the likelihood of fatalities, but also shooter IDs and arrests. Law enforcement must work to clear more non-fatal firearm assaults in Milwaukee, a challenge when they’re finally getting the murder rate under control.

Little River, South Carolina

Liver River, SC (pop: 10,500) is a small community about 30 minutes northeast of Myrtle Beach.

The 10 firearm injuries recorded during the Memorial Day holiday weekend occurred during a single event on Sunday, May 25th.

Shots were fired in the parking lot of a charter boat business off Watson Avenue after an argument on a party boat carrying over 120 people.

Police said 10 people suffered gunshot wounds in the shooting, and another person was hurt but not shot. WMBFNews.com

Two suspects, a 16-year-old and 19-year-old, have been arrested and charged with multiple counts of attempted murder, possession of a weapon during the commission of a violent crime, and/or possession of a weapon by person unlawful. The latter charge applies only to the 16-year old, since South Carolina law allow permitless open carry for adults 18 and older since 2024.

Gun violence, especially homicide, is rare in Little River. But an uptick of firearm assaults resulting in non-fatal injuries is observed since 2022. In 2025, there have already been twice as many shooting incidents (12) in this small community compared to the previous year, when the total reached six non-fatal firearm injuries. This includes the 10 victims shot on May 25th, plus two shootings that occurred an hour apart back in February.

Honorable Mention: Myrtle Beach

There were no reported shootings in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, over Memorial Day weekend.

Considering its proximity to Little River, Myrtle Beach’s track record of firearm violence may be relevant to its smaller neighbor’s uptick. Myrtle Beach, just shy of 40,000 residents, has an inordinate amount of firearm violence, especially non-fatal assaults, for a community its size. As of June 11, 2025, the city is on track to experience more gun violence this year than in 2024, but shootings are down dramatically since highs observed in 2015, 2016, and 2020. As violence in Myrtle Beach ebbs and flows, smaller nearby communities like Little River may be positively or negatively affected.

Most Cities are Stable or Improving

Finally, it’s important to underscore that among 1857 communities in my data set the vast majority reported stable or decreasing Memorial Day weekend violence in 2025.¹

Next, I’ll examine the implications of “stable” firearm violence in the overall context of declining rates in cities like Philadelphia, Baltimore, New Orleans, and Minneapolis.

1. The data set includes all cities that have reported at least one firearm injury or homicide since 2014. This information was retrieved from Gun Violence Archive. Cities with zero events across all years are omitted.