Why I Care About Gun Violence
My interest in gun violence began recently. I earned my PhD in political science at the University of Minnesota during the Great Recession, unaware of the “great crime decline.” The year before I received my PhD, 2014, the US murder rate reached an all-time low of approximately 4.4 per 100,000. In Minneapolis, 31 murders occurred, resulting in a murder rate of 7.7 per 100,000. By 2021, 96 murders occurred in the city, just one fewer than the city’s record set in 1995.
Growing up in rural Alaska during the 1980s and mid-1990s, I lived on a homestead without electricity or indoor plumbing. Guns were common, but murders were rare. I was oblivious to urban violence and the crime decline. As a PhD student in Minneapolis (2009-2015), I took my luxurious personal safety for granted as I wandered home late from karaoke, just 2 miles from where George Floyd died in 2020.
My research initially focused on state budget crises and labor relations. After moving to Springfield, Illinois in 2015 as an Assistant Professor, I noticed the public’s muted reaction to local shootings. In 2017, I relocated to Champaign, where a double shooting near my apartment didn’t alarm me since it was targeted. I just avoided walking home by myself after midnight.
I hadn’t studied gun violence until 2020’s events shifted my focus. My university’s president announced $20 million in CARES Act funding for twice-weekly mass saliva testing during the pandemic, a move that seemed excessive. My jaw dropped listening to university leaders gush about deploying vast resources testing mostly healthy young college students for covid-19. Meanwhile, official statements addressed national issues like George Floyd’s death and anti-Asian violence, but ignored Champaign-Urbana’s 2021 spike of 89 shootings, 24 fatal.
I was angry that my university claimed to care about “black lives” and “Asian hate” while remaining silent on the local deaths of so many almost exclusively black men and boys. I was never worried for my personal safety, since white women with PhDs are about as unlikely as Asians to be murdered in America. Rather, I was outraged that public safety equity wasn’t a priority for an institution that constantly emphasized DEI and social justice in mission statements and resource allocation.
But this was 2021. Biden was president, Democrats controlled Congress, and most major cities had (and still have) Democratic mayors. The pandemic was the only public health emergency worthy of our concern. Left-wing institutions refused to acknowledge that gun crime was surging under their watch.[1] Legitimate concerns about violence were dismissed as right-wing propaganda, while data showing spikes in shootings were dismissed because things were “not as bad than the 1990s” (except where they were worse). Even suggesting crime was increasing was dangerous!
Frustrated by dismissed concerns about rising crime, I analyzed Gun Violence Archive data, confirming a 2020-2021 surge. My findings, covered accurately by NPR Illinoisand local media, were misrepresented in Salon with the headline: “No, big cities aren’t more violent than ever. Small ones are. Findings from a recent peer-reviewed study run counter to the right-wing narrative about gun violence in America.”
In response, I launched the 1000 Cities Project on Substack to share unfiltered research on homicide trends, mass shootings, and gun policy.
Three key lessons emerged:
Gun violence surged post-2020 but is now declining, regardless of firearm regulations or rising gun ownership.
Gun violence isn’t a red state or blue city issue. Blaming lax gun laws oversimplifies; many permissive states have low homicide rates.
Gun violence disproportionately affects Black Americans. The Black male homicide rate was 52 per 100,000 in 2022, compared to 2 for whites. Segregation shields white areas, but most victims in high-violence communities aren’t criminals.
Blaming political rivals or dismissing concerns as fearmongering won’t solve gun violence. Even if murder rates drop in 2025, Black homicide rates will remain disproportionately high. Public safety is everyone’s right.
[1] To their credit and galvanized by the murder of a police officer, the Champaign City Council made reducing gun violence through partnerships between law enforcement and community organizations a priority in 2022. Gun violence has fallen in recent years, although 2025 is on pace for another high murder year.