Most states allow Constitutional Carry. Are people shooting like it's the Wild West?
Do gun violence patterns change after the establishment of permitless handgun carrying? Exploring early adopting states: KS, MS, ME, WV, ID, MO & NH.
29 States Require Permitless Carrying
Colloquially known as “Constitutional Carry,” (CC) concealed and/or open carrying of handguns without a state-issued license is increasingly the law of the land, especially in rural, Republican-controlled states.
Place and behavior restrictions exist, especially around schools zones and bars, holster etiquette, and carrying under the influence of drugs or alcohol. Otherwise, people unrestricted from possessing handguns (like minors, felons, and domestic abusers) can transport them on their person and/or in their vehicle without a permit. Concealed carry of rifles, even in states with permitless carry for handguns, is more restricted.
Do permissive carrying laws contribute to more trigger-happy, violent firearm usage?
States have been experimenting with permitless handgun carrying for over a decade. How has this impacted rates of gun homicides and assaults?
Today, I consider this question in seven early adopting states where concealed (and usually open) firearm carrying was enacted statewide between 2015-2017. The earliest adopting permitless carry states (Vermont, Alaska, Arizona, and Wyoming) aren’t analyzed here because I don’t have data from before 2014. However, I have previously written about Alaska and Wyoming’s comparatively low firearm violence rates despite their relatively high rates of firearm ownership and permissive handgun carrying laws. You can access this story below:
Early Adopting Permitless Concealed Carry States
This chart reports the statewide firearm homicide rate per 100,000 in each state during the years immediately before and after the implementation of permitless handgun carrying. These range from a low of 0.7 (New Hamshire, 2020-2021) to 14 per 100,000 (Mississippi, 2021).
For context on statewide homicide rate and how these have changed over time, refer to the analysis linked below which reports 2015 state urban firearm violence rates and compares them to 2021 rates:
Recall that firearm violence spiked 30% nationally between 2019 and 2020, and increased again in most communities in 2021. Patterns of firearm violence in early adopting permitless concealed carry states map onto nationwide trends, with most experiencing a sharp increase in shootings in 2020 and/or 2021 that has since subsided.
The next series of charts show the annual rate of firearm fatalities and injuries (omitting suicides and defensive shootings) for each state from 2014 to 2024, with a demarcation signaling the effective year of its permitless concealed carry law. Importantly, the vertical (y) axis on these charts is not normalized. If you compare Kansas and Mississippi side-by-side, the highest horizontal line on the former chart signifies 250 shootings, while on the latter represents 600. I also report counts rather than rates on these charts, so they cannot be directly compared due to differing state populations. My intention is to invite comparisons of each state to itself at time -+ the adoption of its permitless carry law. First up is Kansas, which implemented its policy on July 1, 2015.
Kansas
Injuries rose in the year following the law’s passage (2016), but by 2024 both fatalities and injuries were almost equivalent to or lower than their count during 2015.
The urban firearm homicide rate in Kansas consistently ranks among the lowest in the US. Permitless concealed carry does not appear to have impacted this. Among the five larges cities in Kansas, firearm violence is disproportionately concentrated in Wichita (pop. ≈ 370,000), Topeka (pop. ≈ 125,000), and Kansas City (pop. ≈ 153,000). Non-fatal firearm assaults rose sharply in these cities in the year after CC was established, but remained incredibly low and flat in Olathe (pop ≈ 148,0000) and Overland Park (pop ≈ 197,000) though the entire time period included in the analysis. By 2024, Topeka and Kansas City had fewer firearm assaults than during the year CC was established.
Mississippi
Among early adopting permitless carry states, Mississippi had the highest firearm fatality rate each year except in 2015, when Missouri’s was higher. It’s also the only state where both firearm injuries and fatalities have been higher in each year since the state’s adoption of permitless concealed (and open) carry in 2015, although this pattern has not been linear.
Maine
There have been fewer gun murders in Maine each year since the state’s permitless concealed carry law went into effect, with the exception of 2023. That year, the typically high gun ownership/low gun violence state suffered a horrific mass shooting in Lewiston. This shooting, committed with a semi-automatic rifle by an army reservist who exhibited numerous “red flags” prior to the event that authorities disregarded, started in a bowling alley before moving to a bar and grille. Handguns are not permitted in establishments that serve alcohol, so the state’s permitless concealed carry law could not have contributed to (or prevented) the state’s large spike in firearm violence in 2023, which is mostly attributable to this event.
West Virginia
As a year-over-year leader in statewide “deaths of despair” West Virginians are substantially more likely to commit suicide, or overdose on alcohol and drugs, than they are to die from intentional firearm violence. Overall, shootings are down since the state passed permitless concealed carry, but deaths of despair continue to plague the state, so there isn’t much comfort in these numbers.
Idaho
Idaho has been a mixed bag since 2016. The state’s violence trended downward until 2020, when it rode the homicide wave along with much of the county. Shootings are up since 2016, but if they continue to fall in line with national trends they’ll be back to their pre-CC levels soon. Also, take a look at Idaho’s raw shooting numbers before scrolling on. With a population of around 2 million, militia-filled Idaho, characterized by Everytown for Gun Safety as having “the worst gun laws in the country,” exhibits European Union levels of intentional firearm homicides (i.e., <2.0 per 100,000).
I’m not planning to drive my Tesla through Northern Idaho to experience the state’s “unique” culture firsthand any time soon. (I also have no idea whether the militia would celebrate or vandalize the car.) But Boise and Pocatello, two places I’d love to visit, have extremely low levels of firearm violence. Permitless concealed carry hasn’t turned Boise into the Wild Wild West. It’s one of the safest communities of its size (235,000) in the country. And despite an uptick in shootings after the pandemic, Pocatello remains a quiet college town.
Missouri
Missouri, on the other hand, has several high-violence cities that contribute to the state’s overall higher-than-average firearm homicide rates. Permitless concealed carry does not seem to be an impediment to the reduction of firearm violence since 2020. This is observed both statewide and in selected high violence cities.
Most of the firearm violence in Missouri is concentrated in Saint Louis and Kansas City. Homicides and assaults in both cities rose sharply surrounding the pandemic and have started to stabilize.
New Hampshire
Finally, New Hampshire (pop. ≈ 1.4m) stands out as another rural state with limited numbers of intentional shootings that are mostly concentrated in Manchester. There’s no observable pattern in homicides or assaults involving firearms tracking with the state’s adoption of permitless concealed carry in early 2017.
Constitutional Carry in Low Density States
The earliest adopters of permitless handgun carrying were mostly rural states with low population density. If a man carries a handgun in a forest but there’s no one there to see (and provoke) him, perhaps he’s unlikely to shoot anyone. Or, perhaps most people who want to carry handguns publicly fall into three categories:
People who will do so legally regardless of barriers.
These folks have such a strong preference to carry a handgun legally that they’ll pay the time and financial costs associated with being able to do so.
People who will do so illegally regardless of the consequences.
These folks obtain, carry, and use handguns illegally despite potential legal ramifications.
People who will do so only with no barriers or consequences.
This includes people with benign and mal intent, but excludes felons, minors, and anyone else who isn’t allowed to possess a handgun.
Where do we believe most people fall within these categories?