Memorial Day is a gun violence bellwether
Summer 2024 is off to a good start in most cities...
The first weekend of summer traditionally coincides with a spike in firearm violence. These shootings are concentrated in urban areas, as indicated by this map of Memorial Day shootings in 2023:
Compared to previous years, there were substantially fewer shootings (overall) this Memorial Day weekend, bringing 2024 in line with levels observed in 2017.
There's work to be done in cities like Chicago, D.C., and New Orleans. 2024 marked Chicago’s worst Memorial Day weekend since 2017. At least 71 people were shot in the city from the Friday before Memorial Day through the early morning of Tuesday, May 28.
Nonetheless, this is progress. Many cities are turning things around and this is something to celebrate!
Wow, the sharp decrease - erasing five years of steady increases - is really remarkable. As always, it seems to belie the simple causal mechanisms most people seem to believe. It must be hundreds of little, unheralded changes making a difference. I'm grateful that we are probably not due for a repeat of the 80s and 90s.