Homicide stats tell a fraction of the story in New York's Cities & Boroughs
Fatal and non-fatal shootings are mostly down, but the ratio of non-fatal to fatal firearm injuries is heavily skewed and warrants vigilance.
Firearm homicides continued to decrease in most New York cities/boroughs in 2023, compared to previous summers.
However, there were roughly 3x to 6x more shooting injuries than fatalities in Brooklyn (4:1), Queens (4:1), Bronx (4:1), Staten Island (6:1), Buffalo (3:1), Rochester (5:1); and Syracuse (6:1) during the summer of 2023. If we focus our research and reporting only on homicides involving firearms, we miss the overwhelming majority of incidents of firearm violence.
Use the links to view interactive graphs depicting shooting fatalities to injuries in selected NY cities & boroughs. Darker shaded (and larger) chart regions depict injuries. Lighter shaded areas depict fatalities.
Importantly, the rate of firearm violence (fatalities and/or injuries) per 100,000 is incredibly low (by US standards) in all boroughs of New York, both relative to cities like Albany, Syracuse, and Rochester, but also compared to most large US cities.
For instance, the Bronx population is 1.47 million, while the population of Rochester is 211,000. So, the Bronx has 7x more people but practically the same number of non-fatal shootings, and only marginally fewer firearm fatalities as Rochester. New York City is not particularly prone to high levels of gun violence, but Syracuse, Rochester, Buffalo and Albany are.
Still, the increase in the amount of overall gun violence in most cities in New York since 2015 (excluding Hempstead and Yonkers which have incredibly low rates) is notably broad and driven by a substantial increase in non-fatal injuries relative to injuries. In other words, the ER doctors are incredibly good at treating gunshot wounds and/or shooters are increasingly haphazard about where they’re aiming/at whom they’re targeting.
Here’s how shooting fatalities and injuries broke down in 2015:
Now here’s the breakdown during the pandemic, when gun violence spiked practically everywhere, including throughout NYC:
Finally, here’s the picture at the end of the summer of 2023. The boroughs are heading in the right direction and Albany looks great, but Rochester is struggling.
Murder stats get headlines, especially when they’re sharply increasing or decreasing, but today’s firearm assault is tomorrow’s firearm homicide, as these are attempted murders, not warning shots. Non-fatal shootings require our attention and vigilance, even in places with relatively low murder rates.
I can't say I have any answers for you, but maybe a little insight: in late March 2020, a naked man high on PCP aspirated on his vomit and died while wearing a spit hood, which officers placed on him while waiting for an ambulance because he was spitting on them and screaming that he was going to give them covid. There was some outrage at the time but it didn't really explode until post-Floyd, when protestors set cop cars on fire and harassed outdoor diners. Meanwhile, a seemingly botched investigation into the incident and a lot of blame-shifting further exacerbated tensions between the wildly corrupt and incompetent then-mayor and the fairly new chief of police, who eventually resigned. A Police Accountability Board was established, quickly became a den of back-biting and workplace harassment, and has done fuck-all except form a union, which appears to be their primary and perhaps only interest.
The city schools are abysmal, though well-funded, and the only solution progressives are interested in is creating a county-wide school district (because when all the schools are equally shitty, no one will notice). Of course, city public school kids were also locked out of in-person school long after private and suburban students had returned to class. Even the magnet schools don't seem to be working like they did when I was in high school and knew plenty of these kids from work and extra-curriculars.
The increase in car thefts for this period (up 350% in the county, and over 800% in the city) also vastly outpaces the rest of the state, and lends an edge of unwanted excitement to running errands around town (unlicensed fourteen year olds are not good drivers). Obviously it's the gangs and the drugs and the guns, but there's a pervasive sense of lawlessness that makes it feel so hopeless. I think the cops are demoralized, the teachers are demoralized, and the working people in the tough parts of the city are, as always, bearing the worst of everything.
Why is Rochester so violent?