Gun murders fell in 17 of 23 states that recently legalized permitless handgun carrying
Correlation ≠ causation when it comes to the relationship between firearm violence and firearm regulations.
In this analysis, I explore how firearm homicide rates (FHRs) have shifted in states that adopted permitless concealed carry laws between 2015 and 2023. Using the year each law took effect—often mid-calendar year—as the starting point, I’ve visualized the changes in murder rates and compiled a detailed dataset covering FHRs before, during, and after implementation, up to 2024. The trends are striking, but the story is far from simple.
The data reveals a nuanced picture. States that adopted permitless concealed carry early (2015–2017) generally still have higher FHRs in 2024 compared to pre-law levels. Meanwhile, states that embraced these laws later (post-2021) have seen the most significant FHR declines by 2024. This aligns with broader U.S. trends: murder rates hit a historic low in 2014, crept upward unevenly through 2019, spiked sharply in 2020 and 2021, and then plummeted in 2023 and 2024. States adopting permitless carry during or after 2021 appear to be riding this recent murder rate decline, much like earlier adopters (or those in 2019) were caught in the 2020–2021 surge.
My visualization below highlights a key finding: in the first full year after adopting permitless carry, 15 of the 23 states saw stable or declining gun murder rates, while 8 experienced increases. Some increases were notable—Mississippi and Kentucky saw sharp spikes—while others, like New Hampshire and Idaho, were modest and didn’t push FHRs to alarming levels.
Importantly, these findings don’t suggest that relaxing carry laws caused the decline in murders. Correlation is not causation! It would be ridiculous to claim that more people carrying firearms has led to recent reductions in shootings. Unless, however, there was a large uptick in defensive shootings following the relaxation of carrying laws that preceded the decline. Instead, Gun Violence Archive reports defensive shootings declining year-after-year since 2017.1
Defensive shootings and gun murders are falling, even as “Constitutional Carry” gains traction—now legal in 29 states. What’s driving these counterintuitive trends? Why is gun violence surging in Mississippi while dropping in neighboring Tennessee, Alabama, Louisiana, and Arkansas? Why are fewer people shooting each other today despite so many states relaxing their gun laws, coupled with surging gun sales in recent years?
The data raises more questions than answers, but suggests it’s wrong-headed to attribute annual fluctuations in gun murders to changes in state-level policies or firearm purchasing behavior. This includes policies that weaken and strengthen firearm regulations. Firearm violence is multi-causal and complex, and we need to talk about it in a nuanced way.
At some point, I’ll compare the frequency of defensive shootings before/after permitless carrying in specific states, so stay tuned!