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SPRINGFIELD, Ill. (WAND) — Memorial Day weekend kicks off the unofficial start to summer. But it's also one of the worst times for firearm violence across the U.S.

Local experts told WAND News, when the temperatures start to climb, so does gun violence.

"Overall nationally, the trend is since at least 2014, there's been a 70% increase in firearm injuries and fatalities over the long Memorial Day weekend," University of Illinois Professor Magic Wade told WAND News.

Professor Wade studies shooting and homicide trends nationwide. She said while the numbers may be shocking, it doesn't mean the public needs to panic.

"The vast majority of places will not experience gun violence. But there are places where there are predictably elevated levels of gun violence, especially certain large cities," Professor Wade explained.

Cities, like Chicago, are now preparing. Governor J.B. Pritzker announced this week, Crisis Prevention and Response Units will be deployed as peacekeepers, partnering with local outreach groups.

"When we know that there's heightened gun violence, in a certain weekend during particular times of the year, then it makes sense to plan ahead and provide law enforcement with additional resources and people who can actually de-escalate potential conflicts before they rise to the level of gun violence," Professor Wade said.

Click here to see her research regarding Memorial Day weekend gun violence.

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Magic Wade, a political science professor at the University of Illinois Springfield, studied firearm homicide and injury data from the Gun Violence Archive for small, mid-size and large cities nationwide from 2015 to 2021. 

“There’s a cluster of cities in Illinois that have gun homicide rates that are actually higher than Chicago’s, or they’re close to it,” Wade said.

“What’s been a big change is in cities like Rockford and Peoria. Both of those cities went from having about 12 per 100,000 in 2015 to Rockford having 17 per 100,000 in 2020. And Peoria had nearly 25 per 100,000.” she said.

Wade also found that Champaign’s rate in 2021 was 18 gun homicides per 100,000 people in 2021, and Chicago’s rate was 15 per 100,000 people the same year.

She also found that 2019 was a turning point for elevated gun violence rates before the nationwide spikes in 2020 and 2021. 

“The pandemic accelerated a trend that was already happening,” Wade said. “After 2019 and through 2021 average rates of fatal and non-fatal shootings only increased across all city-size groups. This shows a broad trend of increasing gun violence that started in 2019, accelerated in 2020 and continued in 2021.”

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Watch the report here.

It's not just a big city problem. Her research found around the pandemic, mid-sized cities like Springfield, Decatur and Champaign saw a surge in violence, just like Chicago and New York.

"Everybody in the community might know someone who goes to school with a victim, who might work with the family members of a victim, kids go to school with somebody and they learn that they were a shooting victim. That's a huge thing that impacts these communities," Professor Wade explained.

Cities across Central Illinois have been working to get a handle on soaring violence.

"We've taken a very proactive approach to combating gun violence in our community. I'm proud to say that as a result of the hard work of the men and women of this agency each year since, we've had a record number of firearms seized," Springfield Police Chief Ken Scarlette told WAND News.

But as the summer approaches violence tends to pick up, so departments are preparing for potentially violent pop-up parties.

"The addition of manpower, the technological component, we're also partnering with local law enforcement agencies — the county sheriffs as well as state police — to ensure that we have adequate resources in place to deal with any issues." Chief Scarlette explained.

Professor Wade said she will be watching arrest rates this summer. She said cities with improving clearance rates have seen some of the biggest drops in violence.

Alyssa Patrick May 15, 2023 Updated May 15, 2023

On this episode, we talk with University of Illinois Springfield Associate Professor Magic Wade about her work and why it could change the conversation over gun violence.

"The problem is more widespread than previously thought," she said. "It's a worsening phenomenon affecting American communities everywhere."

Gun violence is more than just a big city problem. New research confirms smaller cities are seeing a rise in gun crimes, at rates that are often higher than larger, urban areas.